Background. This is a validation study comparing the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation
(EuroSCORE) II with the previous additive (AES) and logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’
(STS) risk prediction algorithm, for patients undergoing valve replacement with or without bypass in Pakistan.
Patients and Methods. Clinical data of 576 patients undergoing valve replacement surgery between 2006 and
2013 were retrospectively collected and individual expected risks of death were calculated by all four risk prediction
algorithms. Performance of these risk algorithms was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration.
Results. There were 28 deaths (4.8%) among 576 patients, which was lower than the predicted mortality of 5.16%,
6.96% and 4.94% by AES, LES and EuroSCORE II but was higher than 2.13% predicted by STS scoring system. For
single and double valve replacement procedures, EuroSCORE II was the best predictor of mortality with highest
Hosmer and Lemmeshow test (H-L) p value (0.346 to 0.689) and area under the receiver operating characteristic
(ROC) curve (0.637 to 0.898). For valve plus concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients actual
mortality was 1.88%. STS calculator came out to be the best predictor of mortality for this subgroup with H-L
p value (0.480 to 0.884) and ROC (0.657 to 0.775).
Conclusions. For Pakistani population EuroSCORE II is an accurate predictor for individual operative risk in
patients undergoing isolated valve surgery, whereas STS performs better in the valve plus CABG group.
Aortic, EuroSCORE, Mitral, Pakistan, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, Valve
Financial support: None of the authors has financial interest related
to this study to disclose.
Hasanat Sharif Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery Private wing 2nd floor Aga Khan University Hospital Karachi 74800, Pakistan email@example.com
Share this Article
Related Content In Interventional Cardiology
FOREWORD – HEART INTERNATIONAL – VOLUME 16 ISSUE 2 – 2022
Welcome to the latest issue of Heart International. Cardiovascular science continues to evolve at an impressive rate, and the range of articles presented here highlights cutting-edge technology and innovation within cardiology. We begin with a commentary by Divaka Perera on the REVIVED study, which evaluated whether percutaneous coronary intervention could improve outcomes in patients with […]
FOREWORD – HEART INTERNATIONAL – VOLUME 16 ISSUE 1 – 2022
Heart International. 2022;16(1):1
Welcome to the latest issue of Heart International. We are delighted to bring you another excellent issue, full of the varied and expert articles that you can expect from our authors. We begin with some exciting news. We are delighted to announce that Heart International has been accepted for listing in PubMed, one of the most widely accessible […]
FOREWORD – HEART INTERNATIONAL – VOLUME 15 ISSUE 2 – 2021
Heart International. 2021;15(2) DOI: https://doi.org/10.17925/HI.2021.15.2.62
Welcome to the latest issue of Heart International. The global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has presented numerous challenges that have altered all areas of health care, including cardiology. Despite these challenges, the past year has shown significant innovation across the spectrum of cardiac care, as demonstrated in the diverse range of articles in this issue. COVID-19 […]
Journal articles and more to your inbox
Get the latest clinical insights from touchCARDIOSign me up!